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NEWS: Recession ended in June 2009 - NBER

2010-09-21T13:38:00.003+05:30

Recession ended in June 2009: NBER

20, 2010, 21:30

Washington: The recession ended in June 2009, making it the longest downturn (dec07-june09=1.5 yrs) since the Great Depression of the 1930s, the National Bureau of Economic Research said.

The NBER, considered the arbiter of US recessions, said it chose that month based on examination of data including gross domestic product, employment and personal income. The group's business cycle dating committee, composed of academic economists, is notorious for taking its time in declaring the start and end of recessions.

The committee said it waited to make its decision this time because it wanted to review revised data on national income, released August 27, to get a clearer reading on the path of economic output in 2009. In April, the NBER declined to call the end of the recession, and some of its members said at the time they were concerned the economy could dip back into negative territory. In Monday's announcement, the NBER said any fresh downturn would mark a new recession, not a continuation of the one that began in December 2007. "The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date," the NBER said.

US officials have been struggling to find a way to speed up a sluggish recovery that has left unemployment at a painfully high 9.6 percent. The US Federal Reserve's policy-setting committee meets on Tuesday, and is widely expect to discuss whether additional measures are warranted to bolster the economy.

http://biz.zeenews.com/news/news_content.aspx?newscatid=5&newsid=13521

Added on 22 Sep 2010

The views are of the official Business Cycle Dating Committee of NBER (USA). Further, it talks about US slowdown which started in Dec 2007. In India, recession actually started around Sep 2008 after Lehman collapse acted as the trigger event following which the world financial system and markets got under panic and started crashing. As supported by the almost vertical and fast rise in equity markets (e.g BSE rose from 800 to 16000 in a matter of few months!), India is believed to have recovered much faster from the recession. India recession is also considered to be less severe as compared to what ppl suffered in US.

Even now when it says the recession got over in June’09, it somewhere admits a possibility of a so called double dip recession AGAIN IN US (‘West’ in general). And that’s the reason it says that such a recession should officially be considered SEPARATELY as a new recession for record keeping purposes.

But the practical fact is US has never really recovered strongly. The recovery has also been a jobless and wek recovery. However, Indian GDP and other data indicates that India is out of recession as such with the only concern at the time being on above the comfort zone inflation side. And even that is slowly expected to come down.

An insightful article article from IIMB Faculty

2010-02-03T16:01:00.001+05:30

[Management Views from IIMB is an exclusive column written every two weeks for india.wsj.com by faculty members of the Indian Institute of Management Bangalore.]

Who sells the largest number of cameras in India?

Your guess is likely to be Sony, Canon or Nikon. Answer is none of the above. The winner is Nokia whose main line of business in India is not cameras but cell phones.

Reason being cameras bundled with cellphones are outselling stand alone cameras. Now, what prevents the cellphone from replacing the camera outright? Nothing at all. One can only hope the Sonys and Canons are taking note.

Try this. Who is the biggest in music business in India? You think it is HMV Sa-Re-Ga-Ma? Sorry. The answer is Airtel. By selling caller tunes (that play for 30 seconds) Airtel makes more than what music companies make by selling music albums (that run for hours).

Incidentally Airtel is not in music business. It is the mobile service provider with the largest subscriber base in India. That sort of competitor is difficult to detect, even more difficult to beat (by the time you have identified him he has already gone past you). But if you imagine that Nokia and Bharti (Airtel's parent) are breathing easy you can't be farther from truth.

Nokia confessed that they all but missed the smartphone bus. They admit that Apple's Iphone and Google's Android can make life difficult in future. But you never thought Google was a mobile company, did you? If these illustrations mean anything, there is a bigger game unfolding. It is not so much about mobile or music or camera or emails?

The "Mahabharat" (the great Indian epic battle) is about "what is tomorrow's personal digital device"? Will it be a souped up mobile or a palmtop with a telephone? All these are little wars that add up to that big battle. Hiding behind all these wars is a gem of a question – "who is my competitor?"

Once in a while, to intrigue my students I toss a question at them. It says "What Apple did to Sony, Sony did to Kodak, explain?" The smart ones get the answer almost immediately. Sony defined its market as audio (music from the walkman). They never expected an IT company like Apple to encroach into their audio domain. Come to think of it, is it really surprising? Apple as a computer maker has both audio and video capabilities. So what made Sony think he won't compete on pure audio? "Elementary Watson". So also Kodak defined its business as film cameras, Sony defines its businesses as "digital."

In digital camera the two markets perfectly meshed. Kodak was torn between going digital and sacrificing money on camera film or staying with films and getting left behind in digital technology. Left undecided it lost in both. It had to. It did not ask the question "who is my competitor for tomorrow?" The same was true for IBM whose mainframe revenue prevented it from seeing the PC. The same was true of Bill Gates who declared "internet is a fad!" and then turned around to bundle the browser with windows to bury Netscape. The point is not who is today's competitor. Today's competitor is obvious. Tomorrow's is not.

In 2008, who was the toughest competitor to British Airways in India? Singapore airlines? Better still, Indian airlines? Maybe, but there are better answers. There are competitors that can hurt all these airlines and others not mentioned. The answer is videoconferencing and telepresence services of HP and Cisco. Travel dropped due to recession. Senior IT executives in India and abroad were compelled by their head quarters to use videoconferencing to shrink travel budget. So much so, that the mad scramble for American visas from Indian techies was nowhere in sight in 2008. (India has a quota of something like 65,000 visas to the U.S. They were going a-begging. Blame it on recession!). So far so good. But to think that the airlines will be back in business post recession is something I would not bet on. In short term yes. In long term a resounding no. Remember, if there is one place where Newton's law of gravity is applicable besides physics it is in electronic hardware. Between 1977 and 1991 the prices of the now dead VCR (parent of Blue-Ray disc player) crashed to one-third of its original level in India. PC's price dropped from hundreds of thousands of rupees to tens of thousands. If this trend repeats then telepresence prices will also crash. Imagine the fate of airlines then. As it is not many are making money. Then it will surely be RIP!

India has two passions. Films and cricket. The two markets were distinctly different. So were the icons. The cricket gods were Sachin and Sehwag. The filmi gods were the Khans (Aamir Khan, Shah Rukh Khan and the other Khans who followed suit). That was, when cricket was fundamentally test cricket or at best 50 over cricket. Then came IPL and the two markets collapsed into one. IPL brought cricket down to 20 overs. Suddenly an IPL match was reduced to the length of a 3 hour movie. Cricket became film's competitor. On the eve of IPL matches movie halls ran empty. Desperate multiplex owners requisitioned the rights for screening IPL matches at movie halls to hang on to the audience. If IPL were to become the mainstay of cricket, as it is likely to be, films have to sequence their releases so as not clash with IPL matches. As far as the audience is concerned both are what in India are called 3 hour "tamasha" (entertainment). Cricket season might push films out of the market.

Look at the products that vanished from India in the last 20 years. When did you last see a black and white movie? When did you last use a fountain pen? When did you last type on a typewriter? The answer for all the above is "I don't remember!" For some time there was a mild substitute for the typewriter called electronic typewriter that had limited memory. Then came the computer and mowed them all. Today most technologically challenged guys like me use the computer as an upgraded typewriter. Typewriters per se are nowhere to be seen.

One last illustration. 20 years back what were Indians using to wake them up in the morning? The answer is "alarm clock." The alarm clock was a monster made of mechanical springs. It had to be physically keyed every day to keep it running. It made so much noise by way of alarm, that it woke you up and the rest of the colony. Then came quartz clocks which were sleeker. They were much more gentle though still quaintly called "alarms." What do we use today for waking up in the morning? Cellphone! An entire industry of clocks disappeared without warning thanks to cell phones. Big watch companies like Titan were the losers. You never know in which bush your competitor is hiding!

On a lighter vein, who are the competitors for authors? Joke spewing machines? (Steve Wozniak, the co-founder of Apple, himself a Pole, tagged a Polish joke telling machine to a telephone much to the mirth of Silicon Valley). Or will the competition be story telling robots? Future is scary! The boss of an IT company once said something interesting about the animal called competition. He said "Have breakfast …or…. be breakfast"! That sums it up rather neatly.

Useful sites and software

2009-09-07T19:39:00.024+05:30

As you discover 'unlimited' amount of good free stuff on the internet, two things become increasingly important: 1. the ability to search it fast and effectively, and 2. the ability to filter and differentiate what is 'really good' from what is average (as the problem is not of 'scarcity' anymore, but that of 'plenty and over-choice'). Its the latter where I am attempting to provide you 'expert' advice on what i 've learnt through 'a lot of experience, talent, time, and effort':). There are bigger experts around, but the list below will easily take your level to 'above-average' to begin with...

USEFUL SITES
Online storage & sharing of large files + Downloading free ebooks:
www.mediafire.com
www.4shared.com
www.scribd.com
www.esnips.com

Search rapidshare ebooks/other files: www.filecrop.com

Free Hindi Song download http://songs.pk

USEFUL SOFTWARE
Desktop search: Yahoo desktop search File name search: Everything

Application launcher: Find and Run Robot

Pdf Tools: Pdf Exchange Viewer (Reader allowing highlight commenting in free 'portable' version), Dopdf (to convert any printable document to pdf), Pdf Split and Merge (to combine or split pdf document pages)

Browser: Firefox (for its awesome address bar, bookmark and history managers, tab features, and wonderful extensions)

Portable 'mini' software from www.nirsoft.net (e.g. My Uninstaller, Outlook Attachview)

Firefox extensions
DownloadHelper (to download Youtube type of videos)
Download them all (Download manager)
Google enhancer
Page Title Eraser

OTHERS
Email: Gmail (due to innovative, marvellous and 'revolutionary' 'lab' features), Outlook

Software with high impact: MS Office (especially Excel and word)

Internet search: Google incl News, blog search (what else:), Bing

Hard drive space usage analysis: WinDirStat, Xinorbis

So what's your software or site that you consider extremely useful, you have already tried and tested and it really works:)

Preview of Office 2010

2009-09-07T18:34:00.005+05:30

A preview of Office 2010 released in July 2009 and final version is expected in 1st half of 2010. The interesting features/changes expected include:

A web-based lighter 'subset' version also to accompany the desktop-based full version aimed at competing with google docs
Ribbon to be introduced in all office applications
Office button on top left to be redesigned
Outlook to have good features including gmail like conversations
Paste preview will allow live preview before pasting
In Word, search feature to allow you search charts, tables, footnotes and other content
PowerPoint to have some nifty video editing features
And then there's Excel, where i would be most interested...:) Excel to have "Sparklines" - small cell-sized charts next to data to get a quick visual representation

Download full article

My observations on union budget 2009-10

2009-07-06T19:16:00.005+05:30

06July09: Union budget 2009-10 presented by Mr. Pranab Mukherji

Things that matter to our lives
The income tax deduction has been increased from 1,50,000 to 1,60,000. So we save some Rs 1000 of money. SARAL – II forms are also to be introduced shortly.

Surcharge on various direct taxes to be phased out; in the first instance, by eliminating the surcharge of 10 percent on personal income-tax. I am not sure if this was needed (its pro-poor ‘symbolic value’ was there at least) doing this, given that the education cess of 3% still very much remains there. Anyways, simplification is welcome!!

There are recommendations all over to buy stocks like Reliance Industries, L&T, BHEL, SBI, ICICI Bank etc, as a) BSE Sensex has sharply ‘corrected’ (down 870 points) and b) the budget is being touted as being pro-infrastructure.

GDp growth rate was 6.7% during 2008-09 and is ‘expected’ to be back at 9%. The sentiment (and it natters!!) appears clearly upbeat.

Rs 120 cr allocated for unique ID; first set expected in 18 months

Interesting to observe though not affecting my life directly!!
The threshold limit for wealth tax has been doubled to Rs 30 lakh (wealth tax rate is 1% of net wealth exceeding Rs 30 lakh now). This translates into a saving of upto Rs 15,000 a year.

Rs.2,113 cr allocated for IITs and NITs, which includes a provision of Rs.450 cr for new IITs and NITs

Increase in Non-plan expenditure is mainly due to implementation of Sixth Central Pay Commission recommendations, increased food subsidy and higher interest payment arising out of larger fiscal deficit in 2008-09

Fiscal deficit is projected at 6.8%of GDP

Structural changes in direct taxes to be pursued by releasing the new Direct Taxes Code within the next 45 days and in indirect taxes by accelerating the process for the smooth introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) with effect from 1st April, 2010

FBT (Fringe Benefit Tax), CTT (Commodities Txn Tax) abolished

Customs duty on LCD Panels for manufacture of LCD televisions to be reduced from 10% to 5%

Somebody else noted that 6.8% fiscal deficit may see some downgrades from rating agencies.

As per ministry document, “Tax proposals on direct taxes to be revenue neutral. On indirect taxes, estimated net gain to be Rs.2,000 cr for a full year.”

Udyan Mukherji sums up: “The market is disappointed as there is nothing on the fuel policy, foreign direct investment, and disinvestment roadmap. Two things seem to have spooked the markets. One, the fact that fiscal deficit is seen at 6.8% versus 6.2% in the interim budget. And second, the hike in Minimum Alternate Tax to 15% from 10%.”

SP Tulsian says: He further adds that some of the major disappointments from the budget were no fiscal deficit control (no big ticket reforms), no indication for divestment & increase in MAT from 10% to 15%. He feels this is a buying opportunity for investors in the market as the weakness would not last more than 1-2 days.

References
http://www.moneycontrol.com/india/news/budget-news/udayan-mukherjee-sums-upbudget/404745

Download pdf document "Budget Highlights"

Adaptability: Get 'reactive'

2009-06-26T19:31:00.004+05:30

The TV advt featuring Shahrukh and Dhoni says "Whatever life throws at you, play it BIG"!! I normally argue on the side of being prepared, anticipating things and being proactive, but on this one i am more than willing to agree with the other side of the perspective that this is how we need to react to things in life...

On only a remotely related note(!), I also recall when (not long back when i was studying at FMS Delhi) our IT course prof M S Singla said... whatever you do in life, always "think BIG'!! I just through it was just another piece of 'great words', but anyways subconsciously agreed to ponder over its merit...and i 've increasingly discovered that perhaps it does make sense...

So what's ur take on that?

Get 'strategic' and philosophical

2009-06-26T19:27:00.003+05:30

The article makes 2 interesting oberservations:

1. Get strategic – talk to your client about where he is today, where he wants to be in one year, how he plans to get there

Strategy is all (or at least mostly) gas and philosophy...yet i think both are important stuff. i mean in spite of all the skepticism and criticism of being vague and non-operational stuff, they are valuable underlying ideas.. and i firmly believe ideas drive our lives at its roots!! So the point is its extremely worthwhile to consciously put some effort in analyzing your current personal and career status, future objectives and priorities and planning to get you in that direction.. your long-term goals should always be there in all that you do and plan to do...

2. Build case studies – there is a lot to be learnt from success and failure. Document your findings, iron out your processes, glean interesting trends and understand patterns.

Learning is an ongoing process and contrary to the resources and time, there's no end to it (that's the problem actually for which whole books have been written:) My point is more about making
it a habit of documenting all your major and minor learnings and experiences while on the go... i am proud to recommend this as i 've been actually able to do this with some success and a lot of productivity... all u need to do is develop some small 'systems' and frameworks that work for you and build on that...

http://www.alootechie.com/content/effective-online-marketing-leveraging-best-practices-offline-advertising

BSE Investing and Trading

2009-01-09T14:04:00.009+05:30

LINKS
Tracks prices of BSE30 index stocks on myiris
http://www.myiris.com/shares/market/marketBse/index.php
Basics and more about BSE Index on moneycontrol
http://www.moneycontrol.com/sensex/bse/sensex-live

New Year Resolution 2009

2009-01-07T21:59:00.006+05:30

Keeping up with the small ‘habit’ started in the year 2000, the following have emerged as the natural NYRs (New Year Resolutions) for the year 2009. I will try to keep them in mind while the year passes by and try to align my priorities (big word actually!!) along these lines

1. Generate IDEAS, reach to key CONCLUSIONS fast
2. Build a stronger grip on the FUNDAMENTALS

Hope I would be a few important steps ahead in my learning curve at the end the year and also would also have better self awareness. Wish me luck!! And share you NYR!!

Pal/07jan09

Career planning equals career limiting

2009-01-05T21:53:00.004+05:30

In Marc Andreessen's words, you can't plan your career because you have no idea what's going to happen in the future. He believes that you will have no idea what industries you will be entering, what companies you will be working for, what roles you will be having, where you will end up living or what you will contribute ultimately to the world.

We are all subjected to change and you will change, industries will change, the world will change and we cannot possibly predict any of it. In other words, what he's saying is that if we attempt to plan our career, it will most probably be an exercise in futility. In the end, it may frustrate us and blind us to the really significant opportunities that life will throw our way.

Therefore, he says that:
Career planning = career limiting
and the sooner we come to terms with that, the better.

Source: http://blog.jobstreet.com/india/

Some Photographs

2008-12-27T21:26:00.005+05:30

PERSONAL
Myself in a relaxed mood
Family photograph-1
Myself with wife sonia-our formal photograph in the studio
Myself with wife sonia during our 'CRISIL' trip to Murud-Janjeera near Raigarh

'Once in a lifetime' trekking visit to Rajamachi (near mumbai) with SBI friends
Myself with Ravi Garoo sir and Sapna at SBI party

Myself with Giridhar (my IIT Kanpur friend)
Myself with Sreejith (my IIT Kanpur friend)

Some useful links

2008-12-27T14:30:00.006+05:30

Personal

My own sites scattered(!!) elsewhere)...an indication of my evolution through personal website creation:)
http://steelpoint.blogspot.com (active, steel sector specific)
http://rajeshpal2009.googlepages.com (not active, hardly contains)
http://pal8ul.blogspot.com (not being updated anymore)
http://pal8ul.wordpress.com (not being updated anymore)

Blog of my dear friend S****** (who for someone reason prefers not to disclose his identity!)
http://theaspirations.blogspot.com

Interesting articles
Top 10 Ways To Raise Your Site In Google

Formatting and presentation quality

2008-12-27T13:54:00.003+05:30

I was just wondering that: Shouldn't they provide more fonts (at least arial narrow, my favorite font these days!!)for blog formatting

Months later I realize: Let me not focus at all on the font.. the default is good enough... the energy i save by not worrying too much about the formatting can be put to good use elsewhere in 'content quality'...

BTW, I still care a lot about presentation quality and consistency where it needs less effort to accomplish and has more long-term impact on my output (the most imp example of such a document is the Resume/CV)... so i consistently have been using Arial narrow (10-11 pts) in Word, Sans Serif (10 pts) in Excel and Tahoma in PowerPoint. And yes, there's Lucida Console (10 pts) in Notepad!!

What's your take on the importance of formatting and presentation quality?

Interesting and useful facts: Did you know?

2008-12-27T13:26:00.000+05:30

EXCEL

“Undo” can be used to retrace up to sixteen steps prior to where you stopped working.
When a “Template” (.xlt) file is opened, a copy of the file appears so you cannot accidentally destroy your master template.

Some tips and shortcuts that can save the day!!

2008-12-27T13:21:00.001+05:30

EXCEL

Shift+File gives you a Close All option
Shift+Edit gives paste as picture/link.
Cntrl+' allows you to copy the formula just above exactly i.e. all the cell reference 'as is' without automatic changes that occur when you simply copy the forumla.
Select a range, type a formula (or constant), press Cntrl+Enter. This will put the same formula (or constant) in all the cells in one shot (Try combining this with point 4 above!)

COMPUTERS

Adding a shortcut link (say to a folder) in " C:\Documents and Settings\Administrator\SendTo" adds it to the right click windows menu. This can be useful. For example, now if you want to copy any file to the added folder, just right click that file and 'send it' to this link in the right click menu under the category "Send to".

Inserting tick symbols in a cell in Excel based on conditions

2008-12-27T12:50:00.000+05:30

12	12	=IF(B13=C13,CHAR(254),CHAR(253))
13	13	=IF(B14=C14,CHAR(254),CHAR(253))
14	12	=IF(B15=C15,CHAR(254),CHAR(253))

251	=CHAR(B17)
252	=CHAR(B18)
253	=CHAR(B19)
254	=CHAR(B20)

Article: People Have No Limits-Even After Failure

2008-12-25T10:30:00.004+05:30

The Peter Principle vs. Rising Above Failure

Ever wonder where “The Peter Principle” came from? Peter Drucker made it very clear that the Peter Principle did not come from him. The Peter Principle came from a best-selling book of the same name, written by an academic by the name of Laurence J. Peter. Moreover Peter (Drucker that is) thought that the Peter Principle was badly mistaken, easily disproved and likely to lead to serious problems at many levels of management if it were actually applied as presented.

Dr. Laurence J. Peter was at the time an associate professor of education at a respected university. His well-known book based on what was called “The Peter Principle” was published in 1968. Peter's central concept was: "In a hierarchy every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence." Being incompetent, the employee would fail and be promoted no further and therefore must be removed from his responsible position. If not, the organization could collapse when the number of incompetents among its ranks reached a critical number, resulting in the inability of the organization to perform its functions efficiently, effectively or competitively. Unfortunately, since demotion was probably not an option, it was best if the individual left the corporation.

Drucker didn’t agree with this at all. Of course he agreed that a non-performer needed to be replaced. However, he also believed that people have no limits, even after failure. This doesn’t mean that a manager must tolerate performance falling short of the standards expected. However, it does mean that failure is not necessarily the end of the line and does not mean that the individual was incompetent, especially for a proven manager who had done well in a variety of jobs previously.

Hiring the Right Person for the Right Decision
Drucker maintained that all too frequently the fault of the failure was the boss who put the individual in the wrong job in the first place. He told us of a top executive who reprimanded a vice president who wanted to fire a senior manager who the vice president himself had appointed. Yet the failing manager had years of considerable success in the company. “The one thing we know for certain is that you made a mistake, since he was your appointment,” the top executive told the vice president. Moreover, to fire this individual was not only unfair, it was stupid. “Why should we lose a proven manager as valuable as this individual, just because you made a mistake?”

In class, Drucker told us that the Peter Principle was overly simplistic. He said that demands placed on modern managers at the higher levels would likely lead to increasing failure rates, a phenomenon that has since come to pass. Everything possible should be done to avoid this happening. Drucker continued, “We have no right to ask people to take on jobs that will defeat them, no right to break good people. We don’t have enough good young people to practice human sacrifice.” Drucker stated emphatically that the selection of the right person for the right job was the supervising executive’s responsibility. However, he agreed that incompetence could not and should not be tolerated. But before one should consider dismissal, the really basic question should be, is every failure due to incompetence? There are many other possible reasons, even inexperience.

Managerial Failure and Unforeseen Opportunity
There is a story that Thomas Watson, founder of IBM, once asked to see a recently promoted vice president who had failed on his first assignment in the new job, a mistake that cost the company a million dollars. The young man reported to the IBM chief prepared for the worst. “I guess you called me in to fire me,” he said on entering Watson’s office.

“Fire you!” exclaimed Watson, “We just spent $1,000,000 as part of your education!”

Moreover, a company that believes and applies the Peter Principle puts significant additional pressure on its managers not to make a mistake, even though mistakes are an inevitable part of action with a reasonable balance of risk versus potential advantage. This pressure is hardly conducive to willingness to take risks or even the assumption of full responsibility, both of which are essential in leadership. Such a “zero failure” climate, other than as a worthy goal, will inevitably create problems. An organization that buys into and practices this solution to the assumed reality of the Peter Principle is hardly encouraging employees at any level. It says that a long-term, hard working, talented and loyal employee must eventually and inevitably meet his fate: to be plummeted headlong out of the corporation, or at best be “kicked upstairs” or put out to pasture in a nonentity job. Accordingly, every manager at every level had better take actions to ensure no mistakes, no failures. Such a result is only possible with risk avoidance, which leads inevitably to mediocrity.

Drucker noted that implicit in the Peter Principle is the assumption that if a manager is unsuited, or even incompetent for one particular job, he or she can’t function well in any other job at the same—or of course a higher—level. This assumption is in error and therefore not only unfair, but incredibly wasteful in human potential, for history is rife with “failures” or those that might be defined as incompetents under the Peter Principle who later proved to be great successes.

Finding the Right Position or Opportunity
Rowland Hussey Macy was a Nantucket Quaker. He studied business and then started a retail store. It failed. He started another. It failed too. This happened six times, and he failed with each. Were his stores divisions of a Fortune 500 company practicing the Peter Principle, he would have been discharged after his first attempt since he would have clearly demonstrated his incompetence at retailing, business and entrepreneurship. However, Macy’s seventh attempt succeeded and Macy died a wealthy man. And 150 later, Macy’s Department Stores still exist and exhibit roughly $30 billion in annual sales from over 1,000 stores. Not too bad a legacy for someone who had clearly risen to his level of incompetence six times before his overwhelming success. I recently watched the annual Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade on TV celebrating Macy’s success.

Winston Churchill reached his level of incompetence as First Lord of the Admiralty during World War I, during which he succeeded in convincing the British War Cabinet to undertake what turned out to be the biggest allied disaster of the war. This was the Dardanelles Campaign, which included the catastrophic allied landing at Gallipoli. It resulted in a crushing defeat with over 200,000 casualties and Churchill's forced resignation from his job as First Lord. Yet the same man, with much higher responsibilities as Prime Minister, during World War II saved England and possibly the world when the British stood alone against overwhelming odds. Moreover, this “incompetent” is now considered the greatest British political figure of the 20th century.

Politicians are great examples disproving the Peter Principle. Abraham Lincoln failed in business, ran for the Illinois State Legislature and was defeated, went into business again and went bankrupt, ran for Speaker and was defeated, was defeated in a nomination to Congress, was rejected for an appointment for the U.S. Land Office, was defeated in a U.S. Senate race and two years later defeated again in a nomination for vice president. Then in 1860 he became our 16th president and saved the Union. To the best of my knowledge, not even his detractors called him incompetent after that.

Lincoln’s General-in-Chief, Ulysses Grant, was the only Union general who bested Confederate General Robert E. Lee. Earlier, Grant had been discharged from the army and then had failed as a clerk in a retail store. Lawrence J. Peter would have said that Grant had reached his level of incompetency with both failures.

People Have No Limits—Even After Failure
Drucker’s lesson is that managers do not rise to their level of incompetence. This is a dangerous myth. If a manager isn’t performing, of course he needs to be relieved of his or her duties. But to automatically fire a manager because of failure with no further thought is, as Drucker said, human sacrifice pure and simple. Keep in mind that people have no limits, even after failure. Don't waste individuals who have previously proven themselves over long periods of time because of a single failure, no matter how monumental. Find the right job for them before writing them off as general incompetents. Keep in mind that people have no limits.

This lesson is especially important at a time when many good people are likely to lose their jobs due even to minor mistakes, or maybe no mistakes at all, because of cutbacks in a time of economic crisis. If you must do the cutting, take care to ensure that the individual that you must let go understands fully that he or she may be far from reaching a level of incompetency and that a truly bright career may still lie ahead. And if you have the misfortune to lose your position yourself, understand that many very successful people were in your situation and went on to much greater success.

Source: http://bookmarks.oneindia.in/27139/showmsg.html

"A few RESEARCH points on STEEL industry"

2008-12-22T20:10:00.001+05:30

Hey

I have started another blog to explore my passion area - STEEL..the blog is titled as "A few RESEARCH points ("steelpoints") on STEEL industry" and i believe it is going to be an interesting journey to explore and share the insights in the world of steel, iron ore, thermal and coking-coal, scrap, ferro alloys, ...

http://steelpoint.blogspot.com/

your inputs are desirable and welcome!!

c ya

Pal.
Courage isn't having the strength to go on; it's going on when you don't have strength..

Welcome!!

2008-07-26T14:50:00.004+05:30

hi all

welcome to my personal blog that is expected to (unlike my other attempts at blogging)get regularly updated:). In any case, if you want to read what i 've written till now i.e. before i started writing here on this blog, u can have a look at my "older" blog (http://pal8ul.blogspot.com)

hope you appreciate my process of evolution into blogging:)

take care!!enjoy!!c ya

Rajesh Pal.
We are what we repeatedly do; excellence then is not an act but a habit..